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Archive for November 5th, 2007

The Mystery of Mary Rosh: how a new form of journalism investigated a gun research riddle - Column

Monday, November 5th, 2007

New York University law professor Yochai Benkler has argued that open source works because programming is a “granular” task–the job of coding a massive piece of software can be broken into many small pieces–and because the Internet allows the rapid collating and peer filtering of work done by thousands of dispersed individuals. Traditional programming requires a few coders to commit a lot of time and effort, for which they will reasonably expect to be paid. When the software’s source code is freely available, however, the big job can be done in small increments by a large pool of volunteers. The results are filtered for quality the same way, with superior pieces of coding copied and spread through the population.

Distributed journalism works similarly. Different lines of inquiry will occur to different people, who bring different kinds of knowledge to bear on the same topic. The ability to concatenate that information online–particularly via those motley commentary sites and open diaries called blogs–makes the information discovered by each available to all.
To see the process in action, consider the case of John R. Lott, author of More Guns, Less Crime, which argues that concealed-carry gun laws reduce crime. In 1999 the sociologist Otis Dudley Duncan questioned Lott’s claim that “if national surveys are correct, 98 percent of the time that people use guns defensively, they merely have to brandish a weapon to break off an attack.”

The major research on defensive gun use, Duncan objected, had shown firing rates ranging from 21 percent to over 6o percent. Lott replied that “national surveys” actually referred to his own heretofore unknown survey of 2,424 households. When Duncan pressed him for the survey data, Lott demurred, saying a hard drive crash had destroyed his data set and the original tally sheets had been lost. In fact, there seemed to be no record at all of the study, nor could Lott recall the names of any of the students who he said had worked on it. Some people began to suspect the study, which is tangential to Lott’s conclusions in More Guns, didn’t exist.

The controversy moved to an e-mail list for academics interested in gun issues. There it brewed until January 10,2003, when it was discovered and linked to by blogger Marie Gryphon. Dozens of blogs picked up the story, and Tim Lambert, one of Lott’s leading critics on the e-list, setup a weblog of his own.

Within weeks, articles on the controversy appeared in The Washington Post, U.S. News and World Report, and other major outlets. Northwestern University law professor James Lindgren, who played a leading role in investigating both Lott and the disgraced gun historian Michael Bellesiles, notes that “at the parallel stage of the investigation into Bellesiles, he was getting a prize for his work.”

Why did the Lott story break so quickly? Part of the difference relates to how the two scandals were investigated. The initial heavy lifting in the Bellesiles case was done by amateur historian Clayton Cramer, later joined by Lindgren, who tried with little immediate success to interest professional historians in the problems he found with Bellesiles’ research. Only when a few committed investigators had uncovered clear proof of malfeasance did the wheels of the academy begin to turn. At that point, the mainstream media took notice.

With Lott, most of the information bloggers had when the story first leaked, including extensive interviews with many of the principals, was again owed to Lindgren’s efforts. Once it was released into the blogosphere, however, reporters could find it quickly on blogs. At the same time, the investigation became an open source affair.

The first round of dispersed investigation came when a Minnesota attorney named David Gross came forward to say he had been the subject of a survey that sounded like Lott’s. The Washington Times ran a brief story implying that the question about Lott’s survey was now closed.

But bloggers were more skeptical: Gross turned out to be a gun rights activist himself, with the group Concealed Carry Reform, NOW! Historian Thomas Spencer unearthed a letter to the Minneapolis Star Tribune in which Gross wrote that gun control advocates “dance on the graves of the innocent victims and glory in their spilled blood.” Another blogger, the pseudonymous Atrios, found news reports recounting how Gross had taken over the names of several gun control groups that had neglected to renew their corporate status with the state.

Gun-Possession Warning To Felons Slashes Recidivism In Chicago

Monday, November 5th, 2007

A pilot program that features warning felons before their release from prison and probationers about gun possession has slashed the recidivism rate in Chicago.

Although the testing so far involves only a few felons and has been in effect for only two years, five-times fewer felons warned about the restriction on gun possession committed new crimes compared to felons who did not receive the warning.

The Illinois Department of Corrections, the Cook County Adult Probation Office, the Chicago Police Department, the Cook County prosecutor, the U.S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives and the U.S. Attorney’s Office in Chicago conduct the gun-possession alert as part of a Project Safe Neighborhoods (PSN) program.
The state selected felons at random to attend the gun-alert meetings so that there was no specific profile that might skew the program.

The federal, state and local law enforcement officials meet with the probationers for at least an hour and discuss gun-possession laws and how prosecutors determine the charges to be placed when police arrest a felon with a gun.

The sessions also include personal history accounts from other felons that have been convicted of gun-possession.

The U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Northern District of Illinois began the program in January 2003.

Of the felons receiving the warnings, only 3 percent have been arrested for new offenses compared to 22 percent for felons from the same areas that did not attend the gun-alert sessions.
The U.S. Attorney’s Office said the effect on the behavior of probationers and parolees came as a surprise because of the high level of compliance attained so far.

University of Chicago Law Professor Tracey Meares and doctoral candidate Andrew Papachristos conducted research for a PSF study that found the unexpected results of the gun-warning sessions.

The study found that the homicide rate dropped 40 percent in the gun-alert communities since the forums began in January 2003-the largest decline for any high-crime district in Chicago.

Another contributing factor to the homicide decline is the Chicago Police Department’s aggressive campaigns against street gangs over the same period.

The department has assigned Targeted Response Units and installed street surveillance cameras in high-crime areas. Outreach programs such as one called CeaseFire that sends ex-felons into the streets to talk to juveniles and young offenders are also at work in the same communities.

But the unique element in the arrest rate was the contrast between offenders that attended the PSN warning sessions and those that did not receive the alert.