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Archive for December, 2007

Fitch Rates Minneapolis-St. Paul Metro Airports Commission $71.9MM Bonds ‘AA-’; Outlook to Stable

Monday, December 31st, 2007

Fitch Ratings has assigned an ‘AA-’ rating to the Minneapolis-St. Paul (Minnesota) Metropolitan Airports Commission’s (the commission) approximately $71.9 million senior airport revenue refunding bonds series 2008A, scheduled for negotiated sale during the week of Dec. 10, 2007 through a syndicate led by Bear, Stearns & Co., Inc. Fitch has also affirmed the ‘AA-’ rating on the commission’s approximately $788.6 million of outstanding senior lien revenue bonds and its ‘A’ rating on the commission’s approximately $827.6 million outstanding subordinate lien bonds. The Rating Outlook is revised to Stable from Negative for all of the commission’s debt.

The 2008A bonds are secured by a senior pledge of the net revenues generated by the operation of the airport system, the main component of which is Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport (the airport). The commission has irrevocably pledged to use a portion of annual passenger facility charge (PFC) revenue to offset debt service associated with PFC eligible projects. Proceeds of the bonds will refinance a portion of the commission’s outstanding debt for present value savings.

The ratings for the commission reflect the airport’s strong financial performance, competitive cost structure, considerable demand for air service generated from a broad-based local economy, and the lack of competing facilities in the upper Midwest. Significant credit concerns include the dominant market share position of Northwest Airlines (Northwest), and the potential for realignment within the domestic airline industry. The rating differentiation for the commission’s revenue bonds reflects the strong legal provisions of the senior lien bonds, particularly in regard to the additional bonds test, and the junior status of the subordinate lien bonds in the flow of funds.

The revision of the Rating Outlook to Stable from Negative is based on the completion of Northwest’s bankruptcy proceedings and the elimination of the risk attendant to the process. Northwest has assumed its amended and restated use and lease agreement, which now runs through 2020, and cured all pre-petition defaults. During this process, the commission amended the use and lease agreement, which readjusted its capital charge and provides some limited revenue sharing with the airlines to reduce rates and charges. However, the commission also maintained its ability to generate internal sources of capital, which should help preserve its competitive cost structure. Fitch does not believe these changes will have a significant long term affect on the airport’s consistently sound financial operations.

Eagan, Minnesota-based Northwest is the airport’s largest carrier, as it and its affiliates accounted for 78.3% of total enplanements in 2006. While the dominant position of Northwest poses a concern, the presence of the airline’s headquarters in the metropolitan area and the airline’s contractual agreements to maintain service levels as required under the agreements pertaining to the commission’s general obligation series 15 bonds, indicate a commitment by the airline to sustain its presence at the airport. However, should the domestic airline industry encounter a new round of economic dislocation or undergo a period of consolidation, Northwest, or a successor carrier, may alter its operations at the airport in response to competitive or economic factors. Sun Country Airlines, American Airlines, and United Airlines, are the next largest carriers at the airport, none of which represented more than 4.2% of enplaned passengers in 2006.

Passenger demand at the airport provides considerable credit strength, and traffic has rebounded strongly from the declines following the economic downturn in 2001. The airport served a record 18.2 million passengers in 2005, representing a 1.2% average annual increase from 2000. However, enplanements declined by 3.6% in 2006 due to reductions by Northwest and Delta Air Lines, and the cessation of service by American Trans Air. Connecting traffic declined by 3.8% for the year, while originating enplanements increased by 1.6%. As a result, O&D traffic represented 50% of total enplanements in 2006, up from 45% in 2003.

The airport maintained its sound financial position in 2006, with net revenues providing 2.04 times(x) coverage of senior lien debt service, and 1.55x coverage of subordinate lien debt service, prior to transfers. The airport’s cost per enplaned passenger remains favorable compared to similar sized connecting hub facilities at $4.79.

Having completed most of its $3 billion 2010 capital program, the principal component of which was the construction of a new runway, the airport’s future capital needs are modest. Through 2014, the airport’s capital program will total $579 million (in actual and inflated dollars). Most of the projects relate to airfield and runway rehabilitation, noise mitigation, and routine terminal improvements. At this time, the airport estimates a need of just $5.5 million in additional borrowing, with most of the program financed through internal sources, PFC revenue, previously issued bonds, and grants. However, the airport is preparing a 2020 plan, which includes possible expansions of both the Humphrey and Lindbergh Terminals. This plan remains in its early phases, and is highly discretionary in nature with the largest elements to be undertaken only as demand warrants.

Fitch Affirms $90.9MM and Downgrades $6.4MM from 1 Ace Securities Corp 2003 Transaction

Monday, December 31st, 2007

Ace 2003-NC1

–Class A affirmed at ‘AAA’;

–Class M-1 affirmed at ‘AA+’;

–Class M-2 affirmed at ‘A+’;

–Class M-3 affirmed at ‘BBB+’;

–Class M-4 downgraded to ‘BB’ from ‘BBB-’;

–Class M-5 downgraded to ‘CC/DR3′ from ‘BB’;

–Class M-6 downgraded to ‘C/DR5′ from ‘BB-’.

The affirmations, affecting approximately $90.9 million of the outstanding balances, are taken as a result of a satisfactory relationship of credit enhancement to expected losses. The downgrades, affecting approximately $6.4 million of the outstanding balances, are taken as a result of a deteriorating relationship between expected losses and credit enhancement.

The collateral of the above transaction consists of fixed- and adjustable-rate subprime mortgage loans secured by first and second liens on residential properties. As of the October 2007 distribution date, delinquencies (loans delinquent more than 60 days, inclusive of loans in foreclosure, bankruptcy, and real estate owned [REO]) are 25.99%, with 1.03% losses to date. Ace 2003-NC1 is seasoned 48 months with a pool factor (current mortgage loans outstanding as a percentage of the initial pool) of 12%. Wells Fargo Bank is the master servicer of the loans (rated ‘RMS1′ by Fitch).

Fitch’s Distressed Recovery (DR) ratings are designed to estimate recoveries on a forward-looking basis while taking into account the time value of money.

Fitch’s rating definitions and the terms of use of such ratings are available on the agency’s public site, www.fitchratings.com. Published ratings, criteria and methodologies are available from this site, at all times. Fitch’s code of conduct, confidentiality, conflicts of interest, affiliate firewall, compliance and other relevant policies and procedures are also available from the ‘Code of Conduct’ section of this site.

1911 A1 9mm: once considered a sissy gun, the 1911 in 9mm is increasingly popular today

Monday, December 31st, 2007

The 9mm Luger cartridge came late to the epoch of the 1911 pistol. Colt didn’t really get serious about it until a few years after WWII, when the U.S. military first considered a 9mm pistol compatible with the ammunition of its European allies. Colt experimented with aluminum frames and the 19×9 cartridge in full-size and compact 1911 s, the latter becoming the famous Commander. When the Pentagon decided to stay with the all-steel .45, the company recouped its T&E costs by offering the Commander, which was initially chambered for 9mm Luger and .38 Super as well as .45 ACE Off and on during the latter half of the 20th Century, the full-size Government Model was offered in 9mm too, but it never approached the popularity of the .38 Super in that pistol, let alone the utter dominance of the .45 Automatic Colt Pistol cartridge.

That’s easy to understand. I grew up in what my colleague John Taffin calls “the golden age of handgunning.” During that time, if you wanted a centerfire Colt pistol, unless you had specific need of the .38 Super’s ballistics, you by God wanted a .45. If you wanted a 9mm, you’d get a Browning Hi-Power, or maybe the S&W Model 39 double action. Colt’s Government Model was the most powerful autoloader then available, and ordering it in 9mm Massad seemed counterproductive, sort of like asking for a Thunderbird with a four-cylinder engine.

Fitch Rates Monroe County, New York $75.9MM Public Improv Bonds ‘BBB+’; on Watch Negative

Monday, December 31st, 2007

Fitch Ratings has assigned a ‘BBB+’ rating to Monroe County, New York’s (the county) approximately $75.9 million public improvement bonds series 2007 and placed the bonds on Rating Watch Negative, along with the underlying ‘BBB+’ rating on approximately $425 million in parity bonds. The bonds are expected to be insured and are scheduled to price competitively on July 11. Capital Markets Advisors, LLC., serves as the county’s financial advisor. The bonds are general obligations of the county, payable from an unlimited ad valorem tax pledge. Bond proceeds will be used to redeem outstanding bond anticipation notes, and to finance various capital improvement projects related to roads, county buildings, and facilities.

The county has manageable debt levels and capital needs, rapid amortization rates, and a diverse economic base. However, the county’s liquidity and financial position is weak due to a high fixed-cost burden and inability to gain structural balance on a recurring basis over the last several years. The Rating Watch Negative placement reflects the potential for a downgrade given the county’s deteriorated financial position and reliance on one-time revenues. To fix its structural imbalance, the county is proposing a Medicaid intercept program and a sales tax rate increase. Failure to enact these measures by the state imposed deadline of Sept. 30, 2007 or adopt some alternative measure to achieve structural balance would result in a rating downgrade of at least one, possibly two rating notches.

Monroe County’s status as one of upstate New York’s key economic centers continues to serve as a primary credit strength. The presence of several large, high quality manufacturing companies, as well as sizeable higher education and health care facilities centered in Rochester, adds to the stability of the county’s economic base. Recent layoffs at large employers like Eastman Kodak, Xerox Corp., and Bausch & Lomb have been largely offset by ongoing job creation in business and health services, as well as growth and diversification among small to medium-sized companies locating throughout the county. Population growth has been largely stagnate over the last two decades while the county’s unemployment rate — measured at 3.9% in April 2007 — has declined steadily since peaking at 5.5% in 2003 and is consistently below the state and national averages. Per capita personal income is 90% of the overall state average, but is slightly better than other upstate urban centers and is above the U.S. average.

Similar to most counties in New York State, the county’s fiscal operations have been pressured over the last several years by rising fixed costs including annual pension obligations, health insurance premiums, and rapidly growing Medicaid costs. After restoring liquidity and general fund balance in fiscal 2005 with a non-recurring $51 million transfer of proceeds from a tobacco bond issuance, the county’s general fund demonstrated a $14.3 million deficit in fiscal 2006. The reduction in the county’s unreserved, undesignated general fund balance to an accumulated deficit of $7.9 million, equal to a weak -0.7% of spending and transfers out, was driven partially by an appropriation of fund balance used to stabilize the county’s tax levy and the prepayment of fiscal 2007 pension costs.

Fiscal 2007 projections demonstrate a slight operations surplus after implementing several cost-cutting measures and utilizing additional one-time revenue sources. The county’s financial forecast illustrates a combined budget gap totaling $100.2 million in the general fund for fiscal years 2008 and 2009. To address the projected shortfall and gain structural balance, the county has publicly proposed and is seeking to raise the county sales tax rate and take part in the state’s Medicaid intercept program.

Overall debt levels are moderate at $2,075 per capita and 4.3% of taxable market value, and supported by the rapid amortization rate of 70% in 10 years. The six-year capital improvement plan (CIP) has increased to $555 million with the inclusion of a runway extension projects at the county’s airport and additional spending to fund improvements to the county’s community college and the water utility facilities. The county will fund approximately one-third of the CIP with GO debt bonds, while the balance of funding will be derived from excess operating revenues from county enterprise funds as well as federal and state aid and reimbursement. The county anticipates issuing $110 million of revenue anticipation notes later in the current calendar year.

Fitch Rates City Of Hayward, California’s $31.9MM Refunding COPs ‘AA-’; Outlook Stable

Monday, December 31st, 2007

The COPs are expected to sell competitively on Aug. 1, 2007. The city’s financial advisor is Fieldman, Rolapp & Associates. The COPs are secured by lease rental payments made by the city for use of the civic center. Proceeds will permit full refunding of the outstanding principal of earlier COPs in order to achieve savings.

The ‘AA-’ rating reflects the city’s low debt levels, with no new debt planned, diverse taxpayer base, and strong assessed valuation (AV) growth, with further expansion planned. The city’s total general fund balances remain strong, although they have been declining. The city risks structural imbalance if new revenue sources are not identified and if expenditure growth continues to outpace revenue growth. The city’s population has below-average wealth indicators and the local housing market has been slowing down.

The city is located in Alameda County and, therefore, forms part of the Bay Area employment market. It has a census population of approximately 140,600. There has been minimal growth since 2000. However, the city estimates that its daytime population is almost 148,000, indicating significant in-migration of daytime workers. The city’s 10 largest employers collectively employ almost 20,000 people. Nevertheless, census data indicates that the city’s labor force and employment has declined slightly since its 2001 peak. Further, the city’s unemployment rate remains higher than Alameda County’s and the state’s unemployment rates, although the gap is narrowing.

The $31.9 million COPs are secured by lease rental payments for the city’s civic center, which has a 2007 appraised value of $39.7 million. The proposed lease transaction has a strong legal structure. Lease features include the city’s covenant to budget and appropriate sufficiently for lease rental payments, a requirement for rental interruption insurance, and the use of an essential city property as security for the COPs.

The city’s financial position is strong. The fiscal 2006 total general fund balance of $23.1 million was 22% of total expenditures, transfers, and other uses. The unreserved general fund balance was a strong $22.1 million or 21.1%. However, while strong, the fiscal 2006 results, which are expected to be repeated in fiscal 2007, represent a decline from the fiscal 2002 total general fund balance of $31.4 million or 29.7% of total expenditures, transfers, and other uses. The city is examining how it can offset its rising costs with new revenue sources. The city’s direct debt level is low at $733 per capita or 0.7% of AV. Overall debt is moderately low at $2,486 per capita or 2.4% of AV.

9mm Parabellum

Wednesday, December 26th, 2007

To most shooters, loading the .45 frame 1911 with 9mm ammo is akin to going to a personal fitness trainer and asking him to make your biceps smaller. It doesn’t seem logical — until you get into special-purpose needs.

A 9mm on a .45 frame has extremely mild recoil: great for petite females, small-statured males or anyone with weak or injured arms or wrists. The recoil force is so light the gun seems to shoot forever without breaking any parts. With a BarSto barrel and 147 gr. Olin Super Match ammo, it’s deadly accurate. From PPC shooting with autos, to Steel Challenge events, to IDPA “Enhanced Service Pistol” competition, the 1911 has a distinct competitive edge.

overwhelming majority of 1911s are .45s. Jeff Cooper said once that people bought 1911 pistols for the .45 caliber cartridge and bought 9mm pistols for the most popular articles in sports eatures of the guns. Still, there are times and places where the ideal gun may be a 1911 that fires a cartridge other than the .45 caliber round with which it is so inextricably linked.

Talon 9mm

Wednesday, December 26th, 2007

New from Talon Industries, the T200 9mm double-action-only features a lock breach, load indicator and a 10-round magazine capacity. The T200 weighs 20 ounces, measures 6 inches long and 1 inch wide. The hammer, firing pin and component parts are made from heat treated 416 stainless steal. The frame and slide are an alloy metal and the grip is glass-filled polymer.

9mm pipsqueek

Wednesday, December 26th, 2007

Massad Ayoob’s column (GUNS, August 2004) was, as usual, exciting, inspiring and instructional. However. I may have taken something away from it he had not intended. The Sheriff’s Deputy in the story was forced to fire eight 9mm shots, even with hot +P+ loads, to finally drop an animal the size of a dog. If I was that deputy I would be looking around for a sidearm to replace that 9mm plinker, preferably one firing a cartridge beginning with 4.

Thanks for putting out such great gun magazines. GUNS and American Handgunner are far and away the picks of the litter.

The personal experience that any pistol round, regardless of caliber, is an “iffy” proposition at best. When deployed against a real-live critter (as opposed to cardboard) the results can never be relied upon to be anything resembling predictable. Would a bigger caliber have done a better job in the case of the deputy and the dog? Possibly. Then again, in sports.

final accuracy is what really counts and obviously, there were no instantly-fatal shots until the deputy hit the attacking dog’s head. My own agency (the San Diego Police Department) had sterling results with 147 grain sub-sonic 9mms against dozens of miscreants, dogs included.

The Art Of The 9mm

Wednesday, December 26th, 2007

Charges against a New York City art dealer who displayed a glass vase full of 9mm ammo in her gallery have been dropped. Mary Boone had been arrested for “disposal of live ammunition” and “possession of an exposed rifle.” Boone asserted the display was art, part of an exhibit by sculptor Tom Sach called “Cultural Prosthetics.”

The prosecution had claimed that Boone had placed 234 rounds of 9mm in a glass vase at her gallery. Boone said the cartridges were a statement on popular culture, likening the availability of guns to a “bowl of candy.”

“The district attorney decision to dismiss makes it clear about its priorities. It’s a win for the First Amendment,” Boone said. Funny, no one bothered to mention the Second.

Titanium 9mm Pistol

Wednesday, December 26th, 2007

Taurus’ PT-111 9mm Millennium pistol features a titanium slide on a polymer frame. The Millennium, a DAO striker fired pistol, is equipped with fixed night sights, polymer grips and a safety mounted on the left side of the frame. With a barrel length of 3.25 inches, it holds 10 + 1 rounds of 9mm Parabellum.