Fitch Rates Minneapolis-St. Paul Metro Airports Commission $71.9MM Bonds ‘AA-’; Outlook to Stable
Monday, December 31st, 2007
Fitch Ratings has assigned an ‘AA-’ rating to the Minneapolis-St. Paul (Minnesota) Metropolitan Airports Commission’s (the commission) approximately $71.9 million senior airport revenue refunding bonds series 2008A, scheduled for negotiated sale during the week of Dec. 10, 2007 through a syndicate led by Bear, Stearns & Co., Inc. Fitch has also affirmed the ‘AA-’ rating on the commission’s approximately $788.6 million of outstanding senior lien revenue bonds and its ‘A’ rating on the commission’s approximately $827.6 million outstanding subordinate lien bonds. The Rating Outlook is revised to Stable from Negative for all of the commission’s debt.
The 2008A bonds are secured by a senior pledge of the net revenues generated by the operation of the airport system, the main component of which is Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport (the airport). The commission has irrevocably pledged to use a portion of annual passenger facility charge (PFC) revenue to offset debt service associated with PFC eligible projects. Proceeds of the bonds will refinance a portion of the commission’s outstanding debt for present value savings.
The ratings for the commission reflect the airport’s strong financial performance, competitive cost structure, considerable demand for air service generated from a broad-based local economy, and the lack of competing facilities in the upper Midwest. Significant credit concerns include the dominant market share position of Northwest Airlines (Northwest), and the potential for realignment within the domestic airline industry. The rating differentiation for the commission’s revenue bonds reflects the strong legal provisions of the senior lien bonds, particularly in regard to the additional bonds test, and the junior status of the subordinate lien bonds in the flow of funds.
The revision of the Rating Outlook to Stable from Negative is based on the completion of Northwest’s bankruptcy proceedings and the elimination of the risk attendant to the process. Northwest has assumed its amended and restated use and lease agreement, which now runs through 2020, and cured all pre-petition defaults. During this process, the commission amended the use and lease agreement, which readjusted its capital charge and provides some limited revenue sharing with the airlines to reduce rates and charges. However, the commission also maintained its ability to generate internal sources of capital, which should help preserve its competitive cost structure. Fitch does not believe these changes will have a significant long term affect on the airport’s consistently sound financial operations.
Eagan, Minnesota-based Northwest is the airport’s largest carrier, as it and its affiliates accounted for 78.3% of total enplanements in 2006. While the dominant position of Northwest poses a concern, the presence of the airline’s headquarters in the metropolitan area and the airline’s contractual agreements to maintain service levels as required under the agreements pertaining to the commission’s general obligation series 15 bonds, indicate a commitment by the airline to sustain its presence at the airport. However, should the domestic airline industry encounter a new round of economic dislocation or undergo a period of consolidation, Northwest, or a successor carrier, may alter its operations at the airport in response to competitive or economic factors. Sun Country Airlines, American Airlines, and United Airlines, are the next largest carriers at the airport, none of which represented more than 4.2% of enplaned passengers in 2006.
Passenger demand at the airport provides considerable credit strength, and traffic has rebounded strongly from the declines following the economic downturn in 2001. The airport served a record 18.2 million passengers in 2005, representing a 1.2% average annual increase from 2000. However, enplanements declined by 3.6% in 2006 due to reductions by Northwest and Delta Air Lines, and the cessation of service by American Trans Air. Connecting traffic declined by 3.8% for the year, while originating enplanements increased by 1.6%. As a result, O&D traffic represented 50% of total enplanements in 2006, up from 45% in 2003.
The airport maintained its sound financial position in 2006, with net revenues providing 2.04 times(x) coverage of senior lien debt service, and 1.55x coverage of subordinate lien debt service, prior to transfers. The airport’s cost per enplaned passenger remains favorable compared to similar sized connecting hub facilities at $4.79.
Having completed most of its $3 billion 2010 capital program, the principal component of which was the construction of a new runway, the airport’s future capital needs are modest. Through 2014, the airport’s capital program will total $579 million (in actual and inflated dollars). Most of the projects relate to airfield and runway rehabilitation, noise mitigation, and routine terminal improvements. At this time, the airport estimates a need of just $5.5 million in additional borrowing, with most of the program financed through internal sources, PFC revenue, previously issued bonds, and grants. However, the airport is preparing a 2020 plan, which includes possible expansions of both the Humphrey and Lindbergh Terminals. This plan remains in its early phases, and is highly discretionary in nature with the largest elements to be undertaken only as demand warrants.