Welcome to the ‘9mm’ Category

Beretta 92FS 9mm Vs Colt 45 Handgun Comparison

Thursday, February 14th, 2008

It is pretty much a simple little survey of sorts. We currently have the M9 (Beretta 92FS 9mm) as the standard issue side arm for most military MOS’s. I am just curious if there is anyone else out there that feels the 9mm is a piece of garbage and we should go back to the .45? No studies were done, no one’s opinion was asked, the change was simply done. No military member I have asked would take a 9mm over a .45. Many people I talked to owe their lives to the .45. I’ve also heard that .45s are like gold over in Iraq, as soldiers there are trying to get their hands on one because the 92F doesn’t do the job.

If the police had .45s instead of 9mm in the Hollywood shootout, they would not have had to get rifles from a gun store. It might not have gone thru the armor but would have knocked them flat and let them close. You can hit target on the earlobe with a .45cal and knock it flat.

As I understand it we converted to 9mm in order to conform to NATO. In my opinion, it was a ridiculous compromise. The purpose of a side arm is to defend yourself in close quarters. A 9mm will injure an adversary, but leave him active enough to possibly still do you harm. 45cal. on the other hand will disable the individual most entirely. Made by Colt the .45 is superior for flat out stopping power and NATO should have conformed to us. The Beretta 92F was brought in because the US needed to maintain the bases in Italy. It was very simply a Quid Pro Quo.

We have to remember that the weapons ’stopping power’ depends on the shooter as well. You can put a .45 in a persons hand that cant shoot, and all the stopping power is still pretty worthless. There were failures of 9mm/40/45, and I have to say it really comes down the shooter.

Just ask the FBI about their tragic 1986 Miami shootout. On the linked chart note the weapons of agents Grogan and Dove, the two agents who lost their lives in the gun battle. The agents had to shoot the two suspects several times to bring them down–none of the FBI agents involved were armed with .45 caliber weapons. Jerry Dove shot one of the bad guys as he climbed out the passenger’s side car window. The round entered under his left arm and penetrated to his heart. He shot and killed Grogan and Dove, and wounded a third FBI agent after taking this hit. It didn’t even slow him down. The Miami office authorized their Agents to carry .45s, shortly after the shootout.

Fitch Rates RFMSI’s $250.9MM Mtge P-T Ctfs Series 2003-S18

Saturday, February 2nd, 2008

The ‘AAA’ rating on the senior certificates reflects the 1.10% subordination provided by the 0.55% class M-1, 0.15% class M-2, 0.15% class M-3, 0.10% privately offered class B-1, 0.05% privately offered class B-2 and 0.10% privately offered class B-3. Fitch believes the above credit enhancement will be adequate to support mortgagor defaults as well as bankruptcy, fraud and special hazard losses in limited amounts. In addition, the ratings reflect the quality of the mortgage collateral, strength of the legal and financial structures, and Residential Funding Corp.’s (RFC) master servicing capabilities (rated ‘RMS1′ by Fitch).

As of the cut-off date (Oct. 1, 2003), the mortgage pool consists of 597 conventional, fully amortizing, 15-year fixed-rate, mortgage loans secured by first liens on one- to four-family residential properties, with an aggregate principal balance of approximately $253,658,469. The mortgage pool has a weighted average original loan-to-value (OLTV) ratio of 57.18%. The weighted-average FICO score of the loans in the pool is 741 and approximately 72.38% and 2.62% of the mortgage loans possess FICO scores greater than or equal to 720 and less than 660, respectively. Loans originated under a reduced loan documentation program account for approximately 24.98% of the pool, equity refinance loans account for 18.48%, and second homes account for 3.67%. The average loan balance of the loans in the pool is approximately $424,889. The three states that represent the largest portion of the loans in the pool are California (29.65%), New Jersey (8.07%) and Texas (5.08%).

None of the mortgage loans are a ‘high-cost home loan’ as defined in the Georgia Fair lending Act, as amended, the New York Predatory Lending Law, the Arkansas Home Loan Protection Act, as amended, the Kentucky Revised Statutes, as amended and the Florida Home Loan Protection Act. In addition, none of the mortgage loans are a ‘covered loan’ as defined in the District of Columbia Home Loan Protection Act. None of the mortgage loans secured by mortgaged property in Maine is a ‘high-rate, high-fee mortgage’ as defined in the Maine Consumer Credit Code and none of the mortgage loans secured by mortgaged property in Nevada is a ‘home loan’ as defined in Nevada Revised Statutes. For additional information on Fitch’s rating criteria regarding predatory lending legislation, please see the press release issued May 1, 2003 entitled, ‘Fitch Revises Rating Criteria in Wake of Predatory Lending Legislation’, available on the Fitch Ratings web site at ‘www.fitchratings.com’.

All of the mortgage loans were purchased by the depositor through its affiliate, Residential Funding, from unaffiliated sellers except in the case of 16.6% of the mortgage loans, which were purchased by the depositor through its affiliate, Residential Funding, from HomeComings Financial Network, Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of the master servicer. Approximately 30.6% of the mortgage loans were purchased from Wachovia Mortgage Corporation, an unaffiliated seller. No other unaffiliated seller sold more than approximately 7% of the mortgage loans to Residential Funding. Approximately 94.6% of the mortgage loans are being subserviced by HomeComings Financial Network, Inc. (rated ‘RPS1′ by Fitch) as primary servicer.

Approximately 7% of the mortgage loans were originated by Capitol Commerce Mortgage Co. which closed its offices and ceased originating loans on or about Aug. 14, 2003. Residential Funding represents and warrants to the trust in the Assignment and Assumption Agreement that it has good title to and is the sole owner of each mortgage loan, free and clear of any pledge, lien, encumbrance and security interest, as of Oct. 1, 2003. Residential Funding confirmed to Fitch that this representation and warranty is also applicable on loans originated by Capitol Commerce Mortgage Co.

Bank One, National Association will serve as trustee. RFMSI, a special purpose corporation, deposited the loans in the trust, which issued the certificates. For federal income tax purposes, an election will be made to treat the trust fund as a real estate mortgage investment conduit (REMIC).

Fitch Rates Lubbock, Texas’s $66.9MM COs ‘AA’; Stable Outlook

Saturday, February 2nd, 2008

AUSTIN, Texas — Fitch assigns its ‘AA’ rating to Lubbock, TX’s $66.9 million tax and wastewater system surplus revenue certificates of obligation (COs), series 2008, scheduled to sell via negotiation on Jan. 16 through a syndicate led by Morgan Keegan & Company, Inc. Fitch also affirms its ‘AA’ rating on the city’s outstanding debt comprising $185.8 million general obligation bonds and $338.1 million COs. The Rating Outlook is Stable.

The COs are direct obligations of the city and are payable from a direct annual ad valorem tax levied, limited to $2.50 per $100 assessed valuation, against all taxable property within the city. The COs are additionally payable from a pledge of surplus net revenues of the city’s wastewater system. The CO proceeds will be used for wastewater system improvements and to pay the costs of issuance.

The ‘AA’ rating reflects the city’s restoration of solid financial reserves, the prevailing health and stability of the local economy, and the moderate direct tax-supported debt burden on city residents. Also considered in the rating is the city’s relationship with its electric utility, Lubbock Power and Light (LP&L revenue bonds rated ‘BBB+’ with a Stable Rating Outlook by Fitch), the financial posture of which has improved, minimizing its potential impact on the city’s general fund operations.

A significant transfer of funds to LP&L in fiscal 2003 depleted general fund cash and reserves, but the city, through a combination of administrative action and strong revenue performance, largely restored general fund reserve levels by fiscal 2005. In addition, LP&L had operating surpluses and improved cash balances in fiscal years 2004-2006. The general fund recovery has occurred more rapidly than anticipated, and the need for additional general fund financial support for LP&L appears less likely. For fiscal 2006, general fund operations contributed more than $2.5 million to the fund balance, primarily due to strong revenue collections. As a result, the city’s unreserved, undesignated fund balance grew to almost $20 million, allowing the city to meet its general fund goal of 20% of operating revenues. A modest operating deficit is projected for fiscal 2007, due to less than budgeted revenues from the city’s new red-light camera program. The fiscal 2008 budget is balanced and based on conservative revenue projections, including adjusted red light camera revenues. In addition, no more transfers to LP&L were required in fiscal years 2004-2007.

Two of Lubbock’s major economic indicators, its unemployment rate and taxable assessed valuation (TAV), are performing well. The latest available unemployment rate was a low 3% for October 2007, well below the Texas (3.9%) and national (4.4%) averages for the same month. TAV gains have been good at almost 9% for the current tax year and an annual average of over 8% over the past five fiscal years. The city’s TAV for fiscal 2008 is approaching $11 billion, and prospects for growth are favorable. More than 60 residential and commercial developments are under way in the city, a portion of which is expected to add as much as $3 billion in new TAV over the next 10-15 years. However, for the first seven months of fiscal 2007, residential and non-residential building permits have declined by 18% and 25%, respectively, after peaking in fiscal 2006, although the valuation of non-residential permits is nearly level to the same period last fiscal year.

The city maintains a moderately low direct debt position at $820 per capita and 1.6% of TAV. When debt from overlapping municipal entities is included, the debt burden rises but remains moderate at just over $2,200 per capita and 4.4% of TAV. Amortization is slightly above average, with 56% of debt outstanding retired in 10 years. In the fiscal 2007 capital improvement plan (CIP), anticipated project costs increased to $485 million through fiscal 2012 from $323 million in the fiscal 2006 CIP. While the increase is sizable, it is overwhelmingly attributable to development of additional water supplies and rehabilitation of the city’s wastewater facilities, both of which were anticipated. Debt issued to fund these projects, including the current offering, will be issued as tax-supported debt, but, per the city’s practice, the debt for the respective utilities will be self-supporting.

Fitch’s rating definitions and the terms of use of such ratings are available on the agency’s public site, www.fitchratings.com. Published ratings, criteria and methodologies are available from this site, at all times. Fitch’s code of conduct, confidentiality, conflicts of interest, affiliate firewall, compliance and other relevant policies and procedures are also available from the ‘Code of Conduct’ section of this site.

Fitch Rates $233.9MM GMACM Mtge Loan Trust, Series 2005-AF1

Saturday, February 2nd, 2008

NEW YORK — Fitch rates GMACM mortgage pass-through certificates, 2005-AF1 as follows:

–$218,986,322 classes A-1 through A-13, PO, IO, and R certificates (senior certificates) ‘AAA’;

–$6,946,000 class M-1 ‘AA’;

–$3,179,000 class M-2 ‘A’;

–$2,355,000 class M-3 ‘BBB’;

–$1,648,000 class B-1 ‘BB’;

–$824,000 class B-2 ‘B’.

The privately offered class B-3 ($1,531,153) is not rated by Fitch.

The ‘AAA’ rating on the senior certificates reflects the 7.00% subordination provided by the 2.95% class M-1, the 1.35% class M-2, the 1.00% class M-3, the 0.70% class B-1, the 0.35% class B-2, and the 0.65% class B-3.

Fitch believes the above credit enhancement will be adequate to support mortgagor defaults as well as bankruptcy, fraud and special hazard losses in limited amounts. In addition, the ratings reflect the quality of the mortgage collateral and the strength of the legal and financial structures and GMAC Mortgage Corporation’s capabilities as servicer. Fitch currently rates GMAC Mortgage Corporation ‘RPS1′ as a primary servicer for prime residential mortgage loans.

The total mortgage pool consists of 1,227 fixed-rate mortgage loans with an aggregate principal balance of approximately $235,469,476.02 as of the cut-off date, secured by first liens on one- to four-family residential properties. The weighted-average original loan-to-value ratio (OLTV) was 70.84%. Cash-out and rate/term refinance loans represent 52.46% and 14.81% of the mortgage pool, respectively. Second homes and investor property account for 4.22% and 17.45% of the pool. The average loan balance is $192,608.57. The weighted average FICO credit score is approximately 697. The three states that represent the largest portion of mortgage loans are California (19.85%), Massachusetts (8.78%) and Florida (7.88%).

None of the mortgage loans are “high cost” loans as defined under any local, state or federal laws. For additional information on Fitch’s rating criteria regarding predatory lending legislation, please see the press release issued May 1, 2003 entitled “Fitch Revises Rating Criteria in Wake of Predatory Lending Legislation,” available on the Fitch Ratings web site at www.fitchratings.com.

The loans were sold by GMACM to Residential Asset Mortgage Products, the depositor. The depositor, a special purpose corporation, deposited the loans in the trust, which then issued the certificates. For federal income tax purposes, election will be made to treat the trust fund as one or more real estate mortgage investment conduits (REMICs).

Fitch’s rating definitions are available on the agency’s public web site, www.fitchratings.com. Published ratings, criteria and methodologies and relevant policies and procedures are also available from this site, at all times. This document will remain on the public site for seven days.

Fitch Rates IndyMac MBS RAST $502.9MM, Series 2005-A8CB

Saturday, February 2nd, 2008

The ‘AAA’ rating on the senior certificates reflects the 4.50% subordination provided by the B1 through B6 certificates, which are not rated by Fitch. Fitch believes the above credit enhancement will be adequate to support mortgagor defaults, as well as bankruptcy, fraud, and special hazard losses in limited amounts. In addition, the ratings reflect the quality of the mortgage collateral, the strength of the legal and financial structures, and the capabilities of IndyMac Bank, FSB (IndyMac) as master servicer (rated ‘RMS2+’ by Fitch).

The mortgage pool consists of 2,527 recently originated, conventional, fixed-rate, fully amortizing, first lien, one- to four-family residential mortgage loans with original terms to stated maturity of 30 years. As of the cut-off date (June 1, 2005), the pool had an aggregate principal balance of approximately $526,614,425. The average loan balance is $208,395, and the weighted average original loan-to-value ratio (OLTV) for the mortgage loans in the pool is approximately 68.66%. The weighted average FICO credit score for the pool is approximately 710. Cash-out and rate/term refinance loans represent 45.01% and 23.51% of the pool, respectively. Second and investor-occupied homes account for 2.22% and 11.64% of the pool, respectively. The states that represent the largest geographic concentration are California (34.53%), New York (11.43%), and Florida (8.31%). All other states constitute fewer than 5% of properties in the pool.

None of the mortgage loans are ‘high cost’ loans as defined under any local, state, or federal laws. For additional information on Fitch’s rating criteria regarding predatory lending legislation, see the press release ‘Fitch Revises Rating Criteria in Wake of Predatory Lending Legislation,’ .

The loans were originated or purchased by IndyMac Bank, F.S.B., which it subsequently sold to IndyMac MBS, Inc. IndyMac MBS, Inc. deposited the loans in the trust, which issued the certificates, representing undivided beneficial ownership in the trust. For federal income tax purposes, elections will be made to treat the trust as separate multiple real estate mortgage investment conduits (REMICs). Deutsche Bank National Trust Company will act as trustee.

Fitch Rates Livingston Parish, Louisiana’s $8.9MM GOs ‘A’

Saturday, February 2nd, 2008

Fitch Ratings has assigned an initial ‘A’ rating to Livingston Parish, Louisiana’s (the parish) $8.9 million general obligation bonds, series 2004. The bonds are scheduled to be sold competitively on Jan. 8. The Rating Outlook is Stable.

The bonds are dated March 1, 2004 and mature serially on March 1, 2005-2024. Bonds maturing on or after March 1, 2015 are subject to optional redemption on March 1, 2014 or any date thereafter at par plus accrued interest. The bonds are secured by and payable from an unlimited ad valorem tax levied against all taxable property in the parish. Proceeds will be used to finance parish library system improvements, including land purchases, and to pay issuance costs.

The ‘A’ rating reflects the parish’s very low debt levels, manageable capital needs, and sizeable, albeit declining reserves. Despite posting operating losses (after transfers) each of the past two years, general fund reserves remain very healthy. Both direct and overall debt ratios are very modest and reflect the parish practice of funding capital needs from available funds, including proceeds from a 1% sales tax.

As part of the Baton Rouge metropolitan statistical area (MSA), the parish is experiencing rapid population growth. The increasing service demands that accompany this growing population are exerting financial pressure on various programs, as revenues are not sufficient to fund all service needs; the parish has responded with certain spending reductions. As growth continues, parish administrators will be challenged to find additional revenue sources while attempting to maintain adequate service levels with limited resources.

The parish’s financial profile is sound, despite net operating losses recorded in each of the past two years. The general fund reported a net loss of $1.2 million in 2002, which included a $650,000 transfer out for road maintenance. This result followed a nearly $615,000 net loss in 2001 that included a $765,000 road maintenance transfer. However, the results for both 2001 and 2002 were better than original budget estimates. These losses produced reductions in the general fund reserves. From a recent high of $5 million or 135% of expenditures and transfers in 2000, the general fund balance declined to a still healthy $3.4 million or 65% of spending and transfers in 2002.

Debt ratios are very low. Direct debt is $95 per capita and less than 0.5% of estimated market value. Overall debt levels, which include entities within the parish, also are low at $695 per capita and roughly 2% of estimated market value. Principal retirement of this offering is below average. The five-year capital spending plan totals approximately $40 million and targets primarily roadways, bridges and drainage. Capital projects will be funded almost entirely with proceeds from the 1% parish sales tax. The parish presently has no other borrowing plans.

The recent parish population growth has been accompanied by steady tax base growth. Taxable assessed valuation (TAV) has increased by an average of 12% over the past five years; the 2003 TAV totaled nearly $166 million. Annual parish unemployment rates for most of the past decade have exceeded Baton Rouge MSA and state averages, but not significantly. Parish income levels, as measured by median household buying income, approximate MSA, state and national averages. The estimated 2002 population of 95,978 is an increase of nearly 5% from the 2000 census total of 91,814 and is up more than 35% from the 1990 census.

Fitch Rates New Hampshire’s $47.9MM GOs ‘AA+’

Wednesday, January 9th, 2008

Fitch Ratings assigns an ‘AA+’ rating to the State of New Hampshire’s $47,860,000 general obligation refunding bonds, 2003 series A (delayed delivery) expected through negotiation with A.G. Edwards & Sons, Inc. on Nov. 21. These non-callable bonds will be due July 15, 2004-2011 and will be dated the expected date of delivery of April 17, 2003. The ‘AA+’ rating on approximately $610 million outstanding general obligation bonds is affirmed by Fitch. This issue is intended to refund $48.14 million 1993 series bonds maturing 2004-11 for debt service savings.

New Hampshire’s (the state) economic buoyancy and resilience as well as its conservative debt and financial policies underpin its credit standing. The national downturn has had a relatively mild economic impact on the state, but business taxes have significantly underperformed projections resulting in a deficit in the combined general and education funds. Reserves currently exceed the deficit but revenue performance and measures taken to maintain balance will determine credit direction.

The initial plan was underfunded and the major revenue source, a statewide property tax, was valid only until Jan. 1, 2003. A new school funding plan was implemented last year which retained existing dedicated funding sources (including previous business tax increases)and provided for further increases in business taxes and other measures as well as higher general fund transfers to the Education Fund. The statewide property tax rate was reduced but the sunset was removed. Such measures would provide for largely balanced operations, however, the funding measures increased the state’s reliance on less predictable revenue sources, particularly business taxes, at the same time that the assumption of education as a state responsibility has reduced spending side flexibility. This aspect of school funding remains vulnerability.

For fiscal 2002 revenues underperformed by approximately $44 million, and spending exceeded the budget by about $20 million, resulting in an unaudited $40 million deficit on June 30, 2002, subsequently increasing to $50 million with later adjustments. The revenue shortfall was primarily due to lower than expected business tax collections. The widening of the deficit in fiscal 2003 to at least the $70.4 million level projected in May is still estimated for the June 30, 2003 biennium close, which could be larger as business tax weakness continued through October. Total general and education fund revenues were$11 million or 1.5% below revised expectations for the four months, and the state is also exposed to additional federal Medicaid assistance losses which could also increase the revenue short fall; $14.8 million is under appeal but an additional $24.6 million payment was recently deferred due to a new challenge of the state’s methodology. Existing state reserves still include $55 million in the stabilization fund and now $34 million in the health care fund, reduced pending appeal. New Hampshire has net tax-supported debt of $601.6 million, equal to $486 per capita and to 1.4% of personal income, very moderate ratios. Commercial paper is used for bond anticipation purposes although none is currently outstanding. Strong personal income and employment growth continued through 2000, sharply slowing to the national average in 2001, but New Hampshire still ranks sixth in per capita personal income. The current economic downturn has been relatively mild with employment increasing 0.8% in 2001 and 0.1% in Sept. 2002 as compared with September 2001.

Fitch Rates Lincoln County, North Carolina $9MM GOs ‘AA-’

Wednesday, January 9th, 2008

Fitch rates Lincoln County, North Carolina’s (the county) $9,000,000 general obligation school bonds, series 2002A ‘AA-.’ The bonds are expected to sell competitively on Dec. 3, 2002 and mature June 1, 2004-2021. Fitch affirms the ‘AA-’ rating on the county’s $59.7 million in outstanding general obligation bonds.

The ‘AA-’ rating is based on the county’s sound financial position, moderate debt levels, and economic growth, spurred by its proximity to the City of Charlotte. It also takes into consideration the county’s lack of a capital improvement plan to address its growth related needs. The rating incorporates a one-notch enhancement due to the oversight of the North Carolina Local Government Commission.

Lincoln County is in the western portion of North Carolina, northwest of Mecklenburg County. Lincolnton, the county seat, is the only incorporated municipality within the county. The rural character of the county continues to change as residential and commercial growth in the eastern portions of the county are turning the area around Lake Norman into a commuting suburb of Charlotte. Assessed valuation has grown 8.4% on average annually over the last five years, including a 20.9% revaluation increase in 2001. Population in the county has grown at a faster rate than that of the state over the last decade, to an estimated 64,999 people in 2001. School enrollment has grown at the annual average rate of 2.2% over the last six years and is expected to increase at the annual average rate of 2.5% over the next several years.

Manufacturing continues to play an important role in the local economy, constituting 31% of the local employment base and 39% of earnings. While several plants have reduced their work force in the last year, others have expanded their operations and added employees. County unemployment rates have increased from 4.1% in 2000 to a high 7.6% in 2001. In September 2002, unemployment was 7.6% in the county compared to state and national levels of 5.8% and 5.6%, respectively

The county’s financial position is sound. A tax rate increase in fiscal 2002 restored structural balance to general fund operations after a $1.3 million drawdown in 2001. A $761,000 drawdown in fiscal 2002 was due to the county’s forgiveness in August 2001 of $2.96 million loaned to the water and sewer fund. Fiscal 2002 unreserved fund balance equaled $9.2 million, or a sound 15.9% of spending.

Adding in the state statute reserve, the balance includes the entire fund balance of $15.6 million, or 27% of spending. For fiscal 2003, the county is expecting that 7 months’ worth of revenues from a newly authorized one-half cent local option sales tax will compensate for roughly 71% of budgeted withheld state reimbursements. The $484,000 difference will be made up through contingency funds and fund balance. The tax begins on Dec. 1, 2002 and will be an on-going revenue source. Revenues from existing sales taxes for the first quarter of fiscal 2003 are on budget.

You can win this: Taurus PT-92 9mm pistol

Wednesday, January 9th, 2008

“Tougher ‘n a two dollar steak,” is what the man behind the shiny glass counter said when I asked him about his rental Taurus PT-92. Rental firearms at the local indoor range lead an extremely hard life. They’re used hard every day and maintenance is minimal. I like to ask occasionally which guns are withstanding the abuse and which are out for service. “Yeah, it’ll sure show you in a hurry which designs hold up and which don’t,” he continued.

The Taurus PT-92 resting in a corner of the display case was distinguished by a badly worn finish and a bumper crop of dents and dings that told the story of a pistol that had lived hard yet survived. I suspect a lot of shiny new guns had come into service and left broken and battered while the old PT-92 continued to soldier on.

The Taurus PT-92 is a workhorse and long-term star of the Taurus line. There’s no polymer plastic frame here, the PT-92 features a tough but light forged aluminum frame and carbon or stainless steel slide. Big, easy-to-see three-dot patridge sights combined with a hand filling grip and traditional double/single action operation make for excellent accuracy.

The PT-92 has a lot going for it–10 plus one capacity with current magazines, superb reliability, fast, easy field stripping, the Taurus Security System (a key locking safety feature) and the Taurus Lifetime Repair policy–but perhaps the best feature is the safety design. The safety is mounted on the frame, just as it should be, with a de-cocking feature and the capacity for “condition one” cocked and locked carry. It’s a system that gives you the maximum flexibility to choose how you desire to carry or store the pistol.

Fitch Rates Memphis, TN $100.9MM GOs ‘AA’

Wednesday, January 9th, 2008

The Rating Outlook for Memphis’s general obligation bonds is Stable. Prudent expenditure management and moderate tax base growth, along with a willingness to increase property tax rates, continue to facilitate financial stability. Residential and commercial reinvestment in downtown Memphis has been impressive, and progress continues. The city’s population grew during the 1990s, reversing prior losses. The rating outlook reflects the city’s undesignated general fund balance target of 5%-8% of annual expenditures, as well as recent increases in the tax-supported debt load, including last year’s $210 million Memphis and Shelby County Sports Authority (the sports authority) bond issue, a contingent liability of both Shelby County and Memphis expected to be paid from numerous tax streams related to arena attendance and tourist activity.

Credit strengths include historically sound financial operations along with tax base, economic, and revenue growth. The city’s unreserved general fund balance has been above the targeted level in every fiscal year since 1994. Despite the area’s substantial tourism-based economy and the economic significance of Memphis International Airport, which Fitch rates ‘A+’ with a negative rating outlook, the city’s general fund generated sizable surpluses in the last two fiscal years after three consecutive drawdowns. Receipts of sales tax and other economically-sensitive taxes declined in each of the last two fiscal years, but property tax revenues remain strong and expenditure growth has been kept in check. Fiscal 2003 general fund operations are expected to yield break-even to slightly positive results. The Mayor will present the proposed fiscal 2004 budget on April 15.

Credit concerns center on the city’s direct and overlapping tax-supported debt levels, which have risen in recent years to a level considered well above average by Fitch Ratings. Overall debt is 6.2% of market value, including sports authority obligations supported by various taxes, with a 50% debt service makeup provision by both the county and the city. Net direct debt service was 15.3% of tax-supported spending in fiscal 2002. The city’s fiscal 2003 capital improvement program projects $558 million in general obligation bond issuance between fiscal years 2003-2007, which would be a sustainable pace, considering both the current above-average rate of debt amortization and expected tax base expansion.