What Do Swing State Voters Read?
Assuming what people read tells something about how they vote, consumer magazine circulation trends - particularly in the dozen states that swung the closest in 2000 - could be the great overlooked predictor in a tight electoral race. Because no analyst really knows what’s going on, making predictions based on subscriptions to popular, politically slanted magazines makes as much sense as surveying “NASCAR dads” or shaking the Magic 8 Ball.
Looking at the upcoming election through the limited lens of the magazine business, the race looks good for the Democrats. Since 2001, subscriptions to three important anti-Bush magazines are up an average of 26 percent in the swing states, whereas subscriptions have stagnated among comparable pro-Bush magazines.
Here, we consider six magazines, left-right counterparts of roughly equal circulation and little overlap among subscribers: The Nation and The National Review, The New Yorker and American Hunter, Forbes and Vanity Fair. Plus one incredibly influential publication that, for now, remains on the fence - O Magazine. The 12 swing states chosen (Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Tennessee and Wisconsin) all went for Gore/Nader or Bush/Buchanan in 2000 by a margin of less than 5 percent.
THE NATION - D, WAY UP
This rad-lib opinion journal has enjoyed impressive 55 percent growth nationwide since Bush took office, which translates to over 54,000 new subscriptions. Its progress has been even more dramatic in many swing states: between 60 and 75 percent. In Florida and Ohio - two tightly contested states that, put together, rival California in terms of electoral votes - The Nation gained about 3,500 new, politically active readers.
THE NATIONAL REVIEW - R, A LITTLE DOWN
In the same two states, meanwhile, The National Review has acquired only 200 subscribers - comparable to how it has fared in the 10 other battleground states. Subscriptions are down slightly all over the country, and they’re barely moving where it counts. While Bush’s reign has ignited the left, this far-right agitator has smoldered.
THE NEW YORKER - D, UP
The 940,000 readers of The New Yorker live mainly on the deep-blue coasts. Its strongest swing-state growth has come in places with little power in the Electoral College, like New Hampshire and New Mexico. So, despite the fury of Hendrik Hertzberg’s “Talk of the Town” pieces, these particular intelligentsia aren’t likely to sway the outcome in November.
AMERICAN HUNTER - R, DOWN
This is where the similarly sized organ of the NRA comes in. In Florida, Missouri and Tennessee alone, nearly 13,000 fewer people are reading American Hunter, with its GOP heavy voter’s guides. Membership has declined, and with it, perhaps, the number of Second Amendment enthusiasts getting riled up with each month’s issue. Presumably these former members aren’t switching parties and putting their saved dues into New Yorker subscriptions. But the Dems won’t encourage them to re-enroll by talking loudly about gun control either.
FORBES - R, UP IN ALL THE RIGHT PLACES
His last two campaigns might have been a joke to all except the very, very rich. But Steve Forbes - who got more than he dared propose, taxwise, from George W. - still propagates his politics through the magazine founded by his father. His readers: wannabe billionaires who see great promise in a second Bush administration. The difference between Forbes’ nationwide growth of 2 percent and its growth in many battleground states is striking - 24 percent in Wisconsin, 22 percent in Arkansas, 21 percent in Ohio. Expect poll-site scuffles between armed retirees and kill-the-welfare-state goon squads, hopped-up on riches freshly squeezed from the middle class.
VANITY FAIR - D, UP TO A POINT
The affluent, fashion-conscious readers of Vanity Fair are no longer treated to soft-focus photo spreads of senior administration officials. Nowadays, they get page after page of vitriol directed at Bush, Cheney, Rice, Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz and that collaborator, Michael Bloomberg. Unlike Forbes - where money is to be made rather than spent - Vanity Fair’s circulation of over a million is expanding at about the same rate (5 percent) nationally as in the swing states. Which means the efforts of editor Graydon Carter to bring Bush down are probably in vain.
O MAGAZINE - UNDECIDED, DOWN
The wildcard. Oprah Winfrey’s influence is waning in some of the areas where she has been most loved - Wisconsin, Missouri, Ohio. But her 1.7 million-odd (women) readers vote because Oprah tells them to vote. Now she doesn’t tell them who to vote for - she’s got more subtlety than that. The clincher seems to be how the candidates treat Oprah when they go on her show. Last time, Bush kissed her and Gore didn’t. Big mistake, Al! There were 94,000 O subscribers in Florida - you only needed a fraction of them.